A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in universities but hardly any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with even the basics. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. Both composes two essays that seek objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
